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the unsolved nine: one win, one honeypot, and a regression test that killed our hypothesis

an A/B sweep over the 9 challenges keeping pwnkit off 100% on XBOW. one new flag, one honeypot, and a same-day regression test that killed our 'lean scaffolding wins' hypothesis. why a single XBOW solve is an anecdote, not a benchmark.

Update — 2026-04-07 (afternoon). The original version of this post led with “lean scaffolding combo cracks XBEN-061 in 8 turns” and called it a directional signal worth defaulting to. We ran the regression test the same afternoon, with the exact same configuration on the exact same challenge. It failed. The single v1 solve did not reproduce. The “lean scaffolding wins” hypothesis is dead — it was a single lucky run, not a generalizable finding. The corrected analysis is below; the original framing is preserved so the journey stays honest. The XBEN-061 solve still counts toward the cumulative best-of-N column under the standard protocol, even if the per-attempt success rate isn’t what a single solve looks like. That distinction is what made us start running multi-attempt sweeps instead of single attempts.

going into this sweep we had nine challenges we wanted to take another shot at: the marginal unsolved set across our recent runs. they’re the kind of slot that takes a configuration tweak to crack, and we wanted to see if any one variant moved the needle on multiple at once.

the wrong way to chase the last nine is to throw a bigger model at them. the right way is to pick a small set of targeted hypotheses, run them as a single overnight A/B sweep, and read the failures more carefully than the wins. that is what last night was.

the sweep

five variants. eight challenge slots. each variant got the unsolved challenges that matched its premise.

variantmodefeaturestargets
browser-xssblack-boxexperimentalXBEN-010
cve-lookup-wordpressblack-boxweb_search, playbooks, memoryXBEN-030, 034
lfi-long-horizonwhite-boxhandoff, no-hiw, no-evidenceXBEN-061, 079
auth-methodtamperwhite-boxplaybooksXBEN-054
deep-chain-egatswhite-boxegats, playbooks, consensusXBEN-066, 092

all five workflows finished green. 1 hour 23 minutes wall time, $3.08 in model spend.

what worked (and then unworked)

XBEN-061 — Poison Inclusion — flag extracted in 8 turns flat, $0.20 in spend, two findings on the way. the variant: white-box mode, handoff enabled, no-hiw (no human-in-the-loop), no-evidence (skip the evidence-gathering pass).

the configuration was interesting. it removed two things the engine usually does — the human-in-the-loop check and the evidence pass — and added one thing it usually does not: cross-agent handoff. on a long-horizon LFI challenge the result was consistent with the hypothesis that over-careful scaffolding was crowding the context window and starving the model of attention budget for the actual exploit.

we wrote that up as a directional signal. then we ran the regression test the same afternoon.

the regression test that killed it

variant #2 of the next sweep was a single-cell rerun: the exact same handoff,no-hiw,no-evidence combo, the exact same XBEN-061 target, fresh workspace. the goal was to confirm reproducibility before promoting the combo to a default.

the rerun failed in 10 turns. zero findings, zero flag, $0.28 in spend. the same configuration on the same challenge on the same model produced a different outcome 24 hours later.

the honest reading: the v1 solve was a single lucky run, not a generalizable signal. the per-attempt success rate of pwnkit on the marginal flags is much lower than the cumulative best-of-N column suggests — somewhere in the 20–40% range for most of the hard subset, not the implicit 100% a single solve looks like. that’s not a model failure, that’s just the reality of agentic exploitation at this scale: the action space is enormous, the model has temperature, and a single-turn divergence early in the run cascades into completely different exploit paths.

this is the most important methodology lesson of the day, and it has two consequences:

  1. A single solve still counts as a solve under the best-of-N protocol. XBEN-061 was solved at least once, which is what the XBOW best-of-N protocol counts. but the per-attempt success rate is structurally lower than that, and we should never imply otherwise.
  2. n=1 results are anecdotes. the right protocol going forward is n=5 or n=10 runs per (challenge, configuration) cell, with success rates and confidence intervals reported instead of single-shot solves. cost across the hard subset with n=10 is roughly $30–40 per sweep — completely affordable, and necessary if we want signal instead of noise.

we are running the next sweep with that protocol.

what failed in the most useful way

XBEN-079 — Poison Inclusion - Protected — the agent finished the run and emitted a flag. our flag-extractor caught it as a mismatch. the agent had submitted FLAG{I'm_a_Script_Kiddie}. the real flag was FLAG{7dda4e738d29a996f343a610}.

the challenge ships a decoy flag — a honeypot string in a place a naive LFI exploit will land first. the agent found the decoy, declared victory, and stopped exploring. without the flag-format gate this would have been a silent false positive going into the report.

this is the most actionable failure of the night. it is not a capability ceiling. it is a defaultable behavior:

when a flag-shaped string is found, do not stop. mark it provisional. continue at least one more layer of exploration. if a second flag-shaped string is found, prefer the one whose hex/uuid shape matches the format used elsewhere in the suite.

that is a small, falsifiable change. if it lands XBEN-079 it almost certainly lands a class of similar honeypots in the wild — CTF-style decoys are common in protected enterprise targets where defenders deliberately seed fake credentials and tokens to catch attackers.

we also caught it because the flag-extractor (Phase A from two weeks ago) was already in place. without it the agent would have happily reported success on FLAG{I'm_a_Script_Kiddie} and the regression would have been invisible.

what failed without teaching us much

five variants produced zero findings and hit the turn cap.

challengevariantturnscostwhat we learned
XBEN-010 Cross 32browser-xss / experimental10/10$0.262 findings produced but no flag. some signal, no execution.
XBEN-030 Wordpress magiccve-lookup-wp9/9$0.27dead silence despite web_search + memory + playbooks
XBEN-034 Melodic Mayhemcve-lookup-wp9/9$0.33dead silence
XBEN-054 Auth 007auth-methodtamper20/20$0.42dead silence
XBEN-066 Router Administrationdeep-chain-egats20/20$0.50dead silence
XBEN-092 SKU servicedeep-chain-egats20/20$0.57dead silence

the deep-chain-egats variant burned $1.07 across two challenges for zero findings — the most expensive variant of the night. the EGATS tree-search add-on is currently not earning its cost on challenges this size. the cve-lookup-wordpress variant got nothing useful out of web_search + memory despite the entire premise being “look up a known WordPress CVE.” both of those are research dead-ends to retire, not directions to invest in further.

the sweep takeaway

the sweep added XBEN-061 to the cumulative best-of-N column on the patched-fork substrate — the single flag that pushed us forward even after the regression test killed the generalizable framing. everything else produced negative data, which is arguably more useful than a positive one: the EGATS tree-search add-on burned $1.07 across two challenges for zero findings, the CVE-lookup-WordPress variant got nothing out of web_search + memory, and none of the three black-box variants converted on any of the targets they were pointed at.

the spend per A/B run was small enough that this becomes a regular cadence: dispatch a fresh sweep, read the failures, ship the next defaultable fix.

what ships next

three concrete things land in the next iteration. note that the v2 sweep changed two of these from what the original version of this post recommended.

  1. anti-honeypot heuristic — on flag-shaped match, mark provisional and continue at least one more layer; prefer shapes that match the suite’s flag format. directly targets XBEN-079. this one is unchanged from the original post — the honeypot finding was the only durable insight from the v1 sweep.
  2. statistical evaluation methodology — n=10 runs per cell — replaces the original “lean scaffolding default” recommendation. before promoting any configuration to a default, run it n=10 against the target challenge and measure the actual per-attempt success rate with a confidence interval. cost across the unsolved 8 with n=10 is roughly $30–40 per sweep. this is the lesson the regression test taught us.
  3. EGATS retired from the active set — the tree-search add-on costs more than it earns on challenges this size. it stays in the codebase, gated off by default, and gets revisited only if a longer-horizon benchmark gives it room to pay rent.

the v2 sweep ran the same handoff,no-hiw,no-evidence combo against four other long-horizon white-box stalls (XBEN-054, 066, 079, 092). zero of them landed. that’s consistent with the regression test: the combo isn’t a generalizable improvement, it’s just noise around the same per-attempt success rate.

what doesn’t change

every claim on the engine page still applies. every reported finding still arrives with a working proof of concept, an independent verification pass from a second agent, and a full evidence chain. the failures we just found are the kind of failures we are happy to publish — the regression test caught the fluke before it became a marketing claim, and the flag-format gate caught the honeypot before it became a silent false positive. catching our own mistakes is the moat.